Posted by
Bryn T. Jones on Saturday, November 01, 2008 11:28:59 PM
Assuming the polls are accurate, the undecided vote should still cause Senator Obama some concern. After all, if they haven't jumped on his merry wagon, are they really likely to join him? I suppose his campaign figures these folks might side with a 'winner' and are doing everything they can to create that appearance. But the fact that Obama is hitting Iowa, a state he supposedly has buttoned up, leads me to think he knows the polls are misleading.
I saw 20/20 on Friday, in which Mr. Stossel commented that the Intrade has been more reliable than polls in predicting the winners of these contests. Since it is determined by bets, that, too can be manipulated with a large enough group of bookies.
From top to bottom, this campaign has had strange markings. The handful of 'conservative' endorsers that use liberal talking points to justify their support seems awkward if not outright paid off. The polls in Indiana and North Carolina most certainly look rigged considering these states have voted Republican by double-digits for the past 30--40 years. Even Missouri and Virginia look a little odd in the toss-up category. These states have been Republican mainstays.
Florida and Ohio I can understand. Those states have a mix. But there, oddly enough, the numbers are not as in favor of Obama as those in the states where it doesn't make sense. One might expect to see John McCain having to defend Ohio and Florida with passes to pick up a blue state.
Yet, what we see is remarkable. McCain is fighting in states that should be solid in his column, and Obama is returning to states he claimed were solid in his own. Their movement should cast doubt on where they think their strength is.
My guess is that the states that went for Bush in 2004, many of them by double-digits, will go for McCain. These are folks who believe in America. They like America the way it is, though they might be disillusioned with Bush's job performance. I suspect that Obama and the other loonies have miscalculated the countries dislike for Bush and interpreted it as synonymous with their own hatred of Bush. America doesn't hate Bush. In fact, were he running against Obama, I would venture to say he'd beat the socialist from Chicago.
And one more thing: We Americans don't frighten so easily. Watch us show up and cast our ballots for McCain.